Research note · 2026
Resilience of complex systems
Civilizations, companies, energy grids and supply chains differ in purpose, but share one challenge: continuing to function when normal assumptions stop being true.
What makes a complex system resilient to shocks it cannot precisely predict?
METHOD
- Compare four system families: societies, companies, energy and logistics.
- Identify critical dependencies, redundancy, feedback loops and adaptive capacity.
- Distinguish robustness, resilience and transformation.
FINDINGS
Diversification
A system dependent on one resource, technology or route can be efficient in normal conditions yet fragile when that dependency breaks.
Redundancy
Redundancy looks costly until it prevents a local failure from becoming a systemic one.
Learning
Long-term resilience depends on detecting weak signals, correcting errors and changing rules.
Governance
Systems that know who decides, on what evidence and with which responsibilities react faster in a crisis.
STARTING BIBLIOGRAPHY
— C. S. Holling — Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems (1973)
— Joseph Tainter — The Collapse of Complex Societies (1988)
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb — Antifragile (2012)